Dr Christian Winkler

Peer Reviewed

Tightening or Loosening? The Effects of Uncertainty on the Design of Preferential Trade Agreements (with Leopoldo Biffi). World Trade Review, 1 - 23, 2026.

— L. Alan Winters Prize, World Trade Review Editorial Board

  • To mitigate uncertainty, it is often assumed that governments negotiate ample flexibility provisions when entering new international treaties. Yet, the case of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) suggests that governments prioritize more stringent commitments when faced with uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate the effects of uncertainty spikes occurring during negotiations on the design of 251 bilateral PTAs. Our theory proposes that sharp increases in uncertainty make governments more prone to signing deeper PTAs to showcase their commitment to liberalization. In doing so, governments cater to firms’ demands for institutions protecting investment, upholding intellectual property rights, and promoting regulatory harmonization. We find robust evidence that PTAs are deeper when the contracting parties are faced with uncertainty spikes during negotiations. However, we do not find equally consistent evidence that countries also make PTAs more flexible. While much of the rational-design literature has focused on flexibility as a tool to cope with uncertainty, our findings suggest that countries rather tend to tighten their international commitments in turbulent times.

Sweetening the Liberalization Pill: Flanking Measures to Free Trade Agreements (with Noémie Laurens and Cédric Dupont). Review of International Political Economy, 1–18, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2024.2337193

  • Free trade agreement (FTA) negotiators increasingly face pressure from domestic interest groups, including environmental NGOs, civil activists, and labor unions. As a result of the growing scrutiny on the content of FTAs, we are now witnessing a proliferation of instruments accompanying FTAs, which we group under the label of “flanking measures.” In this paper, we argue that flanking measures can serve two main non-exclusive purposes: increasing aggregate social welfare by mitigating the negative spillovers of FTAs on society (the substantive dimension) and helping to build domestic coalitions in support of trade liberalization (the political dimension). Despite the relevance and growing empirical importance of the concept, flanking remains largely overlooked in the IPE literature. This essay seeks to fill this gap by discussing the scope, purposes, and timing of flanking.

Global Value Chains: The Road to Resilience (with Selina Hauser and Israel Gutierrez). In: M. Elsig, R. Polanco and K. Claussen (Eds), The Concept Design of 21st Century Trade Agreements. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 2025.

  • Global value chains (GVCs) are a key pillar of the trade environment today. While the rise of GVCs has long been associated with productivity- and welfare-boosting effects, recent events have exposed the vulnerability of globalised production networks. As a response, various governments have taken initiatives to make their supply chains more resilient. In general, two different approaches to GVCs resilience have emerged: First, national, bilateral and multilateral incentives often summarised under the label of “friend-shoring” or “ally-shoring”, which are set to strengthen the relationships with like-minded partners and to increase the strategic autonomy of countries. And second, attempts to promote supply chain diversification by putting incentives to increase international cooperation and risk sharing. This chapter focuses on the second approach to GVCs resilience, and explores which role international cooperation, and in particular, Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs), can play in making GCVs more resilient.

Policy Briefs & Others

The Remaking of the Global Trading Order: The Search for a New Compass (with Cédric Dupont). Kofi Annan Foundation, Issue Brief No 5, Democracy and Trade, 2025.

Sustainability Standards which Work for All: How Trade Policy Can Protect Forests and Livelihoods (with Arianna Bondi). G20 Brazil, Policy Brief, TF04, 2024.

Zur Diskussion der Effekte Künstlicher Intelligenz in der wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Literatur (with Christoph Menzel). BMWi, Diskussionspapier Nr. 8. 2018.

Working Papers

Tailored Protectionism: How Large Firms Shape Non-Tariff Measures

— IPE Best Graduate Student Paper Award, International Studies Association (ISA)

Signing, Flanking, or Renegotiating Trade Agreements? How the European Commission Navigates Ratification Uncertainty (with Cédric Dupont and Noémie Laurens)

Coalitions and Conflicts: How Geopolitical Shocks Shape Cooperation at the WTO (with Yueyi Li)